This week is fairly light in terms of economic news scheduled for release. There are four reports scheduled, but only one of them is likely to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Accordingly, there is a fairly decent possibility of seeing a fairly calm week in the mortgage market.

The week’s first piece of data is one of the least important of all four. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers late tomorrow morning, which are expected to show a drop from February. A similar report to this one and actually the week’s least important data – March ‘s New Home Sales will be released Thursday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts forecasts, I don’t think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods report being posted and the Treasury auction. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the major stock indexes continue to rally, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. If stocks pull back, we could see mortgage rates move lower this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week is fairly light in terms of economic news scheduled for release. There are four reports scheduled, but only one of them is likely to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Accordingly, there is a fairly decent possibility of seeing a fairly calm week in the mortgage market.

The week’s first piece of data is one of the least important of all four. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers late tomorrow morning, which are expected to show a drop from February. A similar report to this one and actually the week’s least important data- March ‘s New Home Sales will be released Thursday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts forecasts, I don’t think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods report being posted and the Treasury auction. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the major stock indexes continue to rally, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage will move higher. If stocks pull back, we could see mortgage rates move lower this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… T his is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Yesterday afternoon’s weakness in bonds was mostly the result a sizable stock rally, but inflation concerns that were mentioned in the Fed Beige Book also contributed. The report showed that the economy continued to weaken and that prices paid for raw materials spiked since the last report. The higher costs for materials usually means higher prices passed on to consumers. That inflation threat is a concern to bond traders because inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments and leads to selling in bonds. That translates into higher mortgag e rates for borrowers.

The Conference Board said that their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March, which attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months, rose 0.1% last month. This matched forecasts and has been a non-factor in today’s trading and mortgage pricing.

The Labor Department released weekly unemployment claims, saying that 372,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was up form the previous week, but was close to forecasts. Therefore, it also had no impact on this morning’s rates.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow. Look for the stock markets to be the biggest influence eon bond trading and mortgage rates. If stocks move higher, binds will likely fall and mortgage rates will inch up. If we see stock weakness, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days … Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Today’s big news was March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it met forecasts in both readings and has not influenced bond trading or mortgage rates much. The 0.3% increase in the overall reading and the 0.2% rise in the core data pegged analysts’ forecasts.

March’s Housing Starts report was the second report posted, showing a much larger than expected decline in starts of new homes. The nearly 12% drop in starts of new homes pushes them to their lowest level in 17 years. This is a strong indication that the housing s ector has not bottomed yet. That is actually good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets so it has not heavily influenced trading or rates.

The third piece of data was more important than the housing data but much less than the CPI readings. March’s Industrial Production report showed a 0.3% rise in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was stronger than the 0.1% decline that was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is stronger than thought. That would be considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve will post its Fed Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET today. Look for any reaction to its results during mid-afternoon trading. There is a possibility of it leading to enough of a change in the markets to create afternoon revisions to mortgage rates.

Tomorrow’s sole monthly report is the Conference Board’s Leading E conomic Indicators (LEI) for March. This data attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. If it estimates an increase in activity, the bond market may fall and mortgage rates could rise. If it shows weaker than expected readings, the bond market may rally and mortgage rates should move lower. This is considered to be a moderately important report, so we may see some movement in rates as a result of this report. It is expected to show an increase of 0.1%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

The Labor Department posted March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) this morning, showing a surprising 1.1% jump in the overall reading. This was much higher than the 0.6% increase that was expected. Fortunately, the more important core data reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices met forecasts with a 0.2% increase. This data gives us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. The core data reading is somewhat good news, but the jump in the overall reading is a concern to traders.

Th ere are four pieces of news scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the sister report of the PPI with the release of March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This index is very similar to today’s PPI, but tracks prices at the more important consumer level of the economy. This is one of the most important pieces of data we see each month, so stronger than expected readings will undoubtedly lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.3% in the overall index and 0.2% in the core data.

March’s Housing Starts report is the second report to be posted, but it will most likely be a non-factor in the market. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is this week’s least important report.

The third is March’s Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It gives us a measurement o f output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, translating into an indication of manufacturing sector strength. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in production of 0.1%. Since signs of a weakening economy are considered favorable to bonds and therefore mortgage rates, a larger decline would be good news for mortgage pricing. However, the CPI is by far the most important data of the day.

The Federal Reserve will post its Fed Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. Since the Fed relies heavily on it during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any surprises.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float i f my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

The Commerce Department posted March’s Retail Sales data early this morning, showing a 0.2% rise in sales. This was a little stronger than what was expected but also contributing to the lackluster open in bonds was an upward revision to February’s sales. Today’s release revised February’s sales higher by 0.2%. This means that sales were stronger than expected the past two months.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six relevant economic reports for the bond market to digest. They begin tomorrow with the release of March’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This data gives us an important measu rement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning. However, a small increase, or better yet a decline in prices, would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.6% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

There are four pieces of news scheduled for release Wednesday. We will see March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), Housing Starts and Industrial Production reports along with the Fed Beige Book Wednesday. It will likely be the most active day of the week for mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

The first important report comes early tomorrow morning when the Commerce Department will release March’s Retail Sales data. This piece of data gives us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% incr ease in sales last month. If we see a larger increase in spending, the bond market will probably fall and mortgage rates will rise. However, a weaker than expected reading could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow.

The Labor Department will post March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Tuesday morning, giving us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates Tuesday morning. However, a small increase, or better yet a decline in prices, would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

The only relevant economic data on tap today was the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. It revealed a reading of 63.2 that was well below forecasts and indicates that consumer sentiment about their own financial situations is still falling. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means consumers are less apt to make large purchases in the near f uture. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S economy, any signs of slowing spending eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive investors.

Next week is very busy in terms of relevant economic releases for the markets to digest. The week kicks off with Monday’s release of March’s Retail Sales data. This is a very important piece of data because it tracks consumer spending at retail level establishments. As with the consumer confidence related indexes, any data related to consumer spending is watched closely and can have a noticeable impact on bond trading and mortgage rates.

Monday’s data is not the only important news of the week. We will also see two very important inflation related indexes the middle part of the week and a couple of less important reports as the week progresses. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers

None of today’s economic news was all that important. The Labor Department said that 357,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, which was much lower than expected and well below the 400,000 mark that we crossed the previous week.

The Goods and Service Trade Balance report revealed a $62.3 billion trade deficit in February. This was much larger than forecasts, but as with the weekly unemployment figures, this data was not important enough to heavily influence bond trading or mortgage rates.

Today’s 10 year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) sale is underway. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there is a reaction to it in the bond or mortgage markets, it will come during afternoon trading.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted late tomorrow morning. This consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Good news would be a decline from March’s 69.5 reading. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of approximately 69.0.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Loc k if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Yesterday’s Fed minutes release actually gave us favorable news. The Fed was clearly concerned about economic growth and likelihood of a recession during the last FOMC meeting. They indicated that the economic slowdown could continue well into next year, which surprised many analysts. This is generally good news for bonds because weak economic conditions make stock less appealing to investors. As a result, funds are shifted into bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The first piece of monthly data is February’s Goods and Service Trade Balance report tomorrow morning. This data gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but unless it varies greatly from forecasts, it likely will not cause much movement in mortgage rates.

Also tomorrow are weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. After last week’s spike in claims, this report may draw a little more attention than it usually does. It is expected to show that claims fell back to 380,000 last week. If it tomorrow’s release reveals a figure near or above 400,000 again, we should see the bond market react favorable and mortgage rates move slightly lower.

There is a 10 year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) sale tomorrow also. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sale as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for it. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing tomorrow afternoon.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.